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    基于行為金融理論的投資策略

    時間:2019年03月16日 所屬分類:經濟論文 點擊次數:

    摘要:行為金融理論研究已經成為熱點研究領域,通過大量實證研究,發現金融市場普遍存在的一些群體心理特征和市場行為,解釋了不少金融市場的典型現象,形成了一些有效的投資策略。本文簡單總結了行為金融研究發現的市場有限理性特征、過度自信特征、規避后

      摘要:行為金融理論研究已經成為熱點研究領域,通過大量實證研究,發現金融市場普遍存在的一些群體心理特征和市場行為,解釋了不少金融市場的典型現象,形成了一些有效的投資策略。本文簡單總結了行為金融研究發現的市場有限理性特征、過度自信特征、規避后悔、錨定效應、思維分割、賭博現象等研究成果。

      在此基礎上,形成了逆向投資、動量交易、成本平均、時間分散等典型的投資策略,不少實證研究證明了這些投資策略的有效性,使得這些策略有了可靠的行為金融理論支持和實證研究支持。這些投資策略能否成功還依賴于對金融市場運行規律和節奏的把握,依賴于投資時機的正確選擇。

      關鍵詞:行為金融,逆向投資,動量交易,成本平均與時間分散

    金融理論

      引言

      行為金融學在金融市場投資與公司金融中有著重要運用,心理學對人類行為和投融資決策有著重要影響。行為金融學主要應用心理學原理和心理測試工具對群體投資行為進行研究。金融市場的價格變化波動復雜,經常出現與市場內在價值不一致的巨大偏差,常見的金融學理論難以解釋,行為金融卻能給出合理解釋。

      一、行為金融

      如今行為金融領域研究成果豐富,發現了導致投資虧損的普遍行為特征:

      1)有限理性特征。投資者的知識和能力總是有限的,不可能達到絕對的最優方案,只有滿意方案,在考慮風險收益的情況下做出自己較為滿意的選擇。傳統金融學基于理性人假說,“理性人”會量化考慮每個決定能帶來的效用,然而人的認知是有局限的,很難在現實中找到一個“理性人”。“正常人”的金融行為,做出的決策常常是非理性的(Irrational)和欠佳(Suboptimal)的。

      2)過度自信特征。在心理學、行為經濟學中有種現象叫做過度自信。研究表明投資者一貫對于自己駕馭市場的能力過分自信,喜歡選擇投資本地股就是典型過度自信行為。股市中投資者的自促成效應及奇異想象、準奇異想象也是過度自信的表現。

      3)規避后悔。后悔是指做錯了一件事,事后感到懊悔,它是一種負性情緒。后悔情緒對投資者的影響比決策錯誤本身引起的損失更大,使其非理性的修正自己的投資行為,拖延或拒絕糾正錯誤投資決策。事后發現的那些匪夷所思的錯誤投資及其嚴重后果,常常是規避后悔心理所致。

      4)錨定效應。決策過程中投資者經常受到第一信息或第一印象所左右,思維被固定在某處,對新信息反應遲緩或拒絕接受。錨定效應使得投資者經常憑直覺交易和固執己見并拒不認錯。

      5)思維分隔現象。是將資金分為“無風險”和“有風險”部分,對二者賦予不同的風險偏好。投資者對不同思維賬戶中的資金會區別對待導致一些嚴重投資錯誤。

      6)賭博行為。金融市場上既有風險厭惡現象,更充斥著賭博投機現象。在極度瘋狂和極度悲觀的行情劇烈波動中,面對獲利機會,投資者經常表現出賭博投機行為,做出完全非理性決策。

      二、行為金融投資策略

      行為金融分析對金融市場的影響與日俱增,它將行為科學理論融入金融學中,建立行為投資決策模型,構建有效的行為金融投資策略。

      (1)逆向投資策略。

      逆向投資策略是積極尋找那些不被市場關注,價值被嚴重低估的股票,避免投資市場過度熱門、價值被高估的股票。它是避免羊群效應的有效投資策略,傾向價值投資,其投資機會以估值為評價基準。合理的估值水平就是逆向投資的邊際值,在邊際值下方越跌越買,在邊際值上方越漲越賣,就是逆向投資的基本策略。逆向投資策略在主題熱點明顯的市場不適用,在投資風格輪動的結構性市場上是可行策略。

      (2)動量交易策略。

      就是追漲殺跌策略,是利用金融市場價格趨勢的慣性進行投資。市場的動量效應是對收入消息的反應不足、單個證券的平均收益的截面變化,或者是由特定公司的行業動量所導致的。

      (3)成本平均策略和時間分散化策略。

      成本平均策略,是指預先制定好投資計劃,在不同價格水平分批投資而攤低成本,避免全額投資存在的巨大風險。它要求投資者堅持定期投入相同金額的資金,其主要目的是免去正確選擇市場最佳投資時機、選擇最佳板塊等非常苛刻的要求。

      時間分散化策略,是將資金在投資周期上進行不同時間的分配和計劃,也是避免集中投資分散風險的一種投資策略。它要求在風險承受能力高的時候加大投資,在風險承受能力低的時候減少投資。在風險收益比有利的時候加大投資,在風險收益比不利的時候減少投資。通過投資時間階段的分散化,達到控制投資風險的目的。

      三、行為金融投資策略評述

      逆向投資策略和動量交易策略都是被研究和實際應用得非常普遍的策略,逆向投資策略成功的關鍵在于對投資過度的程度的判斷和把握,從而能夠正確把握反向投資的時機和控制風險。理論上是可行的,市場統計數據也證明是有效的投資策略。但投資者的實際應用效果卻并不令人滿意。逆向投資常常因為市場強大的趨勢力量和進場投資時間過早而造成巨大損失。

      而動量交易策略則強調順勢而為,追隨市場已經形成并正在持續的趨勢。正確的跟隨市場趨勢進行追漲殺跌的投資,獲取市場慣性帶來的豐厚回報。它要求投資者首先要能正確分辨市場趨勢,然后要正確評估市場動量和慣性。二者其實殊途同歸,不過成功的關鍵都在對投資時機的把握。成本平均和時間分散化策略則是以分散和控制風險為指導思想,通過對于投資價格的多次選擇和投資時間的多次選擇構建投資計劃,是風險和收益較為均衡的投資策略。

      四、結束語

      行為金融理論的研究提出了很多有效的分析結論,較好的解釋了金融市場中的很多典型現象,基于行為金融研究結論和市場群體心理特征,形成的逆向投資、動量交易、成本平均和時間分散等投資策略,都有各自的優點,都在一定程度上會因吻合市場特征而表現出非常不錯的投資收益,都是可以選擇的有效投資策略。然而,策略運用的效果還依賴于對市場運行規律和節奏的把握,準確把握投資時機是策略成功的關鍵。

      參考文獻:

      [1]劉士寶,基于行為金融的證券投資分析,現代商業,2018(20)

      [2]韓柳,從行為金融角度分析股票投資行為,時代金融,2018(05)

      [3]黃順武等,趨勢識別、反轉交易與超額收益,財會通訊,2018(06)

      金融方向評職知識:金融學碩士論文能發表的核心期刊

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