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    不限量套餐流量增長分析及容量保障策略研究

    時間:2019年06月15日 所屬分類:電子論文 點擊次數:

    摘要不限量套餐在拉高網絡流量的同時也加劇了流量分布的不均衡性,使得網絡容量資源與業務分布更加難以匹配。本文研究了不限量套餐歷史發展規律并對未來趨勢做出預測,然后從技術手段、價值評估、業務管控等角度提出了全面的容量保障策略,在緩解容量矛盾的

      摘要不限量套餐在拉高網絡流量的同時也加劇了流量分布的不均衡性,使得網絡容量資源與業務分布更加難以匹配。本文研究了不限量套餐歷史發展規律并對未來趨勢做出預測,然后從技術手段、價值評估、業務管控等角度提出了全面的容量保障策略,在緩解容量矛盾的同時盡量保障投資效益。

      關鍵詞4G網絡;不限量套餐;網絡容量保障

    電信工程技術與標準化

      近期隨著流量資費的持續降低,特別是不限流量套餐的推出,單用戶DOU一直呈現出快速增長的態勢。這將對運營商的網絡容量形成嚴峻的挑戰。

      1不限量套餐歷史發展情況

      截至目前,不限量套餐經歷了從APP定向流量到本地網不限量,再到全國不限量3個階段。2016年下半年以來,各運營商陸續與互聯網企業合作,推出了騰訊王卡、螞蟻寶卡、京東強卡、阿里魚卡、百度圣卡、網易白金卡等一系列互聯網套餐。2017年上半年,各運營商開始促銷本地不限量套餐。套餐資費持續降低,從200元左右降至100元甚至幾十元。同時還有贈送話費等促銷活動。2018年年初,各運營商推出全國流量不限量套餐,主要分為99元和199元兩檔。

      一方面,不限量套餐客戶的DOU是普通用戶DOU的4~8倍,隨著其占比的逐漸提升,手機上網流量呈加速增長態勢。同時,不限量套餐推廣會加劇業務分布的不均衡性,對于“高校”等特定場景,會造成流量井噴的情況,進一步加大網絡擴容技術保障的難度。另一方面,隨著不限量套餐資費持續下降,高ARPU值客戶和高DOU客戶的偏離度加大。

      根據某地市的統計,普通套餐ARPU值TOP20%的客戶與DOUTOP20%的客戶重合度能夠達到75%,當加入不限量套餐客戶的因素后,重合度降到了55%。運營商網絡流量增長和運營收入增長之間的剪刀差愈來愈明顯。綜上所述,隨著不限量套餐推廣,客戶的業務模型正發生“質”的變化,手機上網流量將持續高速增長,無線網絡在時間、地域上的不均衡性將更加明顯,網絡擴容技術保障難度大,投資保障壓力大。投資效益和容量保障處于兩難境地。

      2不限量套餐業務未來增長趨勢分析

      目前各運營商的4G用戶數趨于平穩,數據流量的增長主要來源于DOU的增長,DOU的增長主要來源于不限量套餐用戶占比的提高和不限量套餐用戶DOU的增長。其中,關于不限量套餐用戶占比,根據新業務發展模型和參照國外不限量套餐業務發展的經驗,預計后續不限量套餐用戶的發展將趨于平緩。按照新業務發展模型所述,當后期大多數轉化為不限量套餐用戶后,用戶滲透率增長將趨于平緩。例如韓國不限量套餐用戶占比達到31%即進入緩慢增長狀態。

      關于不限量套餐用戶DOU,由于不限量套餐達到一定的流量門限后(目前主要為20GB)會限速,控制用戶的數據使用量,參照國內外經驗,不限量套餐用戶DOU存在上限(一般低于限速閾值),同時隨著不限量套餐用戶占比的提高,后續DOU提升能力有限。而普通用戶DOU會處于較為平穩的狀態。例如韓國普通用戶DOU一直保持在2~3GB。

      3容量保障策略研究

      為做好4G網絡的容量保障,首先應做好新建基站和擴容基站的協同,通過“宏微皮飛”的異構網絡進行容量保障;強調大力推進“宏微皮飛”異構網絡建設,通過科學構建分層網與合理開展載頻擴容相協同的方式有效提升網絡容量。載頻擴容要與新建基站相協同,避免資源閑置,對需要新建宏站、微站、室分的區域,載頻擴容尤其是邏輯站擴容可以先暫緩,待新建基站完成業務有效分流后,確有需求的再實施載頻擴容。

      同時構建“宏微皮飛”的分層異構網絡,一定要精細優化各層基站參數和覆蓋范圍,避免忙閑不均問題,才能有效提升客戶感知。同時還需做好F/D異頻段負載均衡,以充分發揮擴容載波效果,有效分流業務流量。在分層網建設過程中,不斷優化客戶頻段駐留策略,使各頻點小區“各盡其責”,減小F/D頻段利用率差異,提升網絡擴容效率,充分發揮擴容載頻容量吸收能力。

      對于TD-LTE頻率資源、技術手段窮盡的超熱場景,可以考慮FDD的引入和3DMIMO的部署,同時也要合理控制不限量套餐客戶的增長,尤其是在“高校”等場景。因為不限量套餐客戶需求無盡,而網絡容量有限,一定要合理控制不限量套餐客戶的增長,避免客戶感知的陡降。此外,在業務發展及控制策略方面,宜對4G用戶進行差異化定價及營銷,同時在網絡帶寬分配時進行相應處理。在套餐設計和推廣中應提倡“優質優價”,引導流量向效益的回歸。對低價值客戶極端業務行為(如睡眠后掛機下載視頻、開啟熱點分享等)進行限制或引導至網絡閑時。

      4擴容實施技術方案分析

      各擴容方案各有其優劣勢,需要從不同角度立體進行分析,再因地制宜地進行選擇。

      (1)首先從技術原理角度看,一方面可以增加頻譜資源,除采用TD-LTE已分配頻段外,還需考慮900/1800MHz頻段、以及A頻段的重耕。另一方面可提升頻譜效率,考慮提高天線陣子數、采用高階調制、降低同頻干擾等手段。

      (2)從分層網視角看擴容技術,目前異構網架構包括多層,所涉及各層均可視為擴容的手段。其中宏站方面,除一般容量層采用技術外,用于補熱的室外小微站也屬于擴容。室內覆蓋方面,建設新型數字化室分可視為擴容。另外,站點加密主要包括傳統宏站小區分裂和增加小微站等方式。

      (3)從工程角度看擴容技術,F頻段同頻擴容10MHz、六扇區分裂、D/E同頻段擴容、E頻段小區分裂等技術可視為單站級“軟擴容”。新增D頻段、F頻段或FDD站址,新增小微站、數字化室分可視為單站級“硬擴容”。載頻間/站間負載均衡、載頻拆閑補忙、C-RAN部署及部分基站新功能也均為提升系統容量的手段。

      5引入價值評估體系

      由于流量的野蠻增長并未帶來用戶ARPU及企業效益的同步增長,因此必須建立量化的評估體系,對具體站點的價值進行評估,按價值高低順序安排擴容。優先保障高價值站點擴容。價值評估可基于不同場景數據單價、不同用戶類型價值、不同區域業務增長率等因素設置,同時應考慮競爭因素。站點流量與最終收益的主要差異在于單位比特的數據價格,因此需結合經分數據,對單站收益進行測算。

      應對小區服務用戶的類型進行區分,除經濟價值外,不同類型用戶的社會價值差異也較大。應將區域的業務增長率納入考慮,增長率高的區域價值潛力較大,能持續帶來增量收益。價值評估還需引入競對修正引子,保證高價值場景與競爭對手的相對體驗優勢。

      6總結

      本文圍繞不限量套餐引發的容量沖擊問題,分析了不限量套餐的發展規律,并從技術手段、業務引導等多個角度提出了有針對性的應對策略,一方面有助于預防用戶感知惡化,另一方面也兼顧了運營商投資效益。

      參考文獻

      [1]陳利兵,雷杰,常靜.TD-SCDMA網絡單通故障的實時監測方法[J].電信工程技術與標準化,2011(3).

      [2]張高山,劉海洋,李楠,等.LTE中eMBMS技術探討[J].電信工程技術與標準化,2011(1).

      [3]李坤江.VoLTE及視頻體驗與網絡負荷的實測關聯分析[J].電信工程技術與標準化,2018(2).

      相關電信刊物推薦:電信工程技術與標準化創刊于1988年,由中國移動通信集團公司主管、中國移動通信集團設計院有限公司、中國通信學會和中國工程建設標準化協會通信工程委員會協辦,旨在為海內外信息工程建設和網絡運行部門提供技術支撐與標準服務的實用性、指導性專業刊物。

      

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